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MPEx, the(sic) Bitcoin stock exchange. : Bitcoin
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S.DICE second pubic offering of %5 starting at 0.0044
http://mpex.co/?mpsic=S.DICE Quote from: evoorhees on Today at 04:11:24 AM Hey all, S.DICE will be releasing another 5% stake starting now in five tranches of 1,000,000 shares each. Each tranche will be priced higher than the last. All tranches will be higher than the IPO price but lower than the current market price of around .0071 btc per share. Same rules apply to these shares (100% of net earnings from SD). First tranche is 0.0044 btc per. Listing is live. First come first serve https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134684.140
05-02-2014: They bought ~5870 BTC (off exchange) which was their largest buy yet.
05-02-2014: Someone went on MPEX and shorted 25,000 PUT contracts with strike @ >$4000/BTC, which is basically a 8 million USD bet that next month the price will be above $4000 (more info)...
Did they run out of sellers and will soon be forced to start buying on exchanges? Are they preparing for the incoming madness or did some dude go mental on MPEX and will soon be in need of a new shirt? I don't know but it looks like something big is coming our way and since I'm a perma bull I decided to front run them (again)... What do you guys think?
So... I have some bitcoins now, what should I do with them?
Hello /bitcoin Many of us are accustomed to taking our native fiat currency to the bank and depositing it in a savings account and collecting interest on it. As we all know, bitcoin doesn't quite have an equivalent to a bank [yet? ._.] so what are ways for us to earn btc with our btc? Maybe most people are satisfied with holding their btc in cold storage and just riding the exchange rate rollercoaster... but I highly doubt that this is the case. Please share your investment strategies, preferred exchanges, pass throughs, securities, bonds, etc. tldr; where can i invest my bitcoins to earn more bitcoins, while also gaining from appreciation in the usd/btc exchange rate?
I do apologise. This turned into a far longer post than I envisaged. TLDR: Where the developers are unable to reach an agreement, the miners are unwilling to be the jury and the economic majority has consensus for a certain action, the economic majority's only choice of acting upon it's decision, and thus enforcing it's will, may be the option of forking with a changed algo. Such option may only need to be used once for it forever to suffice as a credible threat to anyone who wishes to centrally control bitcoin: So, what happens now? From what we are reading it seems clear that no developer "consensus" can be reached for a blocksize increase which defacto means a settlement system and, as we all expected, nothing has come out of the conference except for a small increase to 2mb or so in about six months or so. In a public conversation in the workshop IRC channel I had with wangchung, the F2Pool admin, he publicly stated that he would support BIP101 but starting at 2mb, then doubling every two years for the next two decades. Not ideal, of course, that would mean 2mb immediately, then 4mb in 2018, 8 in 2020 and so on, but with SW improvements and if it closes the debate then perhaps it may be a necessary compromise. The miners however have publicly suggested that they are followers, not leaders. Therefore seem unwilling to take the initiative themselves even where their majority agrees, as in the case of BIP100. So we have a situation here where the developers are unable or unwilling to reach an agreement, and the miners are unwilling to make a decision, so it is left to the economic majority to conclude the debate. Now, I'm just throwing ideas here for discussion in the spirit of exploratory enquiry without suggesting any course of action and I highly welcome comments to try and answer this very important governance/decision-making question: Where the developers are unwilling or unable to reach a conclusion either due to genuine or corrupted opinions and the miners consider themselves to not be the "jury", how does the economic majority make a decision and act upon it, thus conclude the debate? That is a general question, not specific to the debate at hand, but since the hardfork is the main issue I suppose it might be helpful to propose some specific assumptions regardless of whether they are actually true or not. Let us suppose that the developers can never reach an agreement, thus taking them out of the decision making process. Let us further suppose that the miners will not act unless the developers reach an agreement, thus taking them out of the decision making process too. Let us suppose that if the economic majority does not act we de facto get a settlement system (as well as perhaps crown some emperor) and, quite importantly, let us suppose that the economic majority strongly supports bip101. With the economic majority being the only party that has made a positive decision in the above scenario and the only stakeholder with consensus amongst their rank, how do they act upon this decision and conclude the debate? To satisfactorily answer that question seems to me a difficult endeavour. To illustrate, Brian Armstrong recently stated that it is for the miners to "vote", while the miners are saying it is not for them to be the jury/voters. It is not clear to me who the miners think is the jury. With the economic majority having expressed their opinion quite clearly, and the miners still not following their decision, how does the economic majority act to enforce the only positive (in the sense of making an active/passive choice rather than good/bad) decision made so far? The economic majority can of course implement BIP101, but with the miners not moving over there is no activation. I suppose the economic majority can wait for the miners to move over, but with the miners following the developers who are disagreeing whether due to genuine beliefs or corruption/sabotage with no likelihood of an agreement in sight, the economic majority is no longer making a positive decision. This would set a terrible precedence in my view as it would allow 1 or 2 developers to veto any changes as well as place the developers in a position of power and control, thus eventually create a hierarchy within the developers with one of them being the defacto emperor. Unless someone smarter than me can suggest any other option/s, the only way for the economic majority to act upon its decision seems to me to be the option of forking with the mining algo changed. I don't think anyone would want to exercise that option lightly nor am I knowledgeable enough to know how it would play out. Practically speaking security would be lower, but I would think for only a short time as the race heats up for more and more hashshare. The older chain would continue and the older miners would have no option but to continue mining it. We can expect at least 1 exchange to hold out, perhaps btcc considering its mining investment. Then there is the individual vote. Coins can only be sold once, in each chain. Therefore the rational investor, if he takes any action at all, will sell the chain they objectively think will lose because if they sell the wrong chain then they have effectively sold their bitcoin at the market price which may at the time be far lower than once the voting war is over. In our case, the mpex crowed has threatened to sell the bip101 chain regardless of who they think will win. If they carry out their action, they will effectively sell their coins at a, probably, far below market price. That would be an irrational decision as they would effectively be burning their own money, thus many of them would hesitate if they objectively think that bip101 would win, therefore the threat is probably a bluff. If it is not, as the economic majority would be in favour of bip101, I would think there would be plenty of buyers for their very cheap coins. Thus, at best, they would only cause some volatility to the rest, while committing suicide for themselves. On the other hand, Roger Ver et all will prob sell the 1mb chain. As it has less than 20% public support, I doubt there would be many buyers for the 1mb coins, thus economically crippling the 1mb chain and it's miners with it. The speculators, of course, will do their, probably decisive, part in concluding with one winning chain while the vast majority would probably just wait until the dust settles with one coin being obviously the loser and the price of the wining coin stabilising or perhaps moon landing. Thereafter, the decision having been made, we can finally move on having set an incredibly powerful precedent. Since nukes were invented we have had to only use them once, to show their power, and in now more than 70 years have never used them again and one would hope they never are. To fork with a changed algo burns hundreds of millions, if not billions, in mining investment and would likely create some high short term price volatility. One would think, however, that a credible threat of a serious consideration of this option would be sufficient for miners to listen to the jury/voters of the economic majority and adopt bip101 or a likewise proposal perhaps starting at 4mb or so without the need to actually go through with it. Such credible threat perhaps can be started by some small player creating the changed algo client which necessarily would attract a lot of cpu/gpu miners, and then it may be sufficient for coinbase/bitstamp to just propose the idea of shifting to this client to place the miners on a conclusive decision mode. Otherwise, through inaction, we are effectively concluding the debate by following a path that is being laid towards a settlement system without a white paper on how such system would work in its entirety, how miners are incentivised, how nodes are incentivised, it's usability for mum and pop, the advantages of bitcoin against other payment systems to mom and pop if we take out free or very cheap, instant, permissionless, and if we take out smart contracts as well as proof of work itself which is the whole point of bitcoin. It may well be that some individuals who hold influential positions hold genuine beliefs in holding against scaling proof of work, but by showing the economic majority powerless to take positive action, miners as easily made to follow by some dissent, and thus developers (who can be counted by hand) as effectively the decision makers, a dangerous precedent is set for the developers themselves who become targets and for bitcoin who would be shown to easily be centrally controllable. Thus, it is decision time for bitcoin. After almost a full year of debating all the imaginable points, two conferences, and the positions having been fully laid out by all sides at this point, the ball is on the economic majority, who is the only stakeholder that can conclude the debate, to decide whether they wish to take positive action in favour of their within rank consensus decision, or take a passive decision and thus forever give up it's power. Both have ramifications, yet only one is the choice. TLDR: Where the developers are unable to reach an agreement, the miners are unwilling to be the jury and the economic majority has consensus for a certain action, the economic majority's only choice of acting upon it's decision, and thus enforcing it's will, may be the option of forking with a changed algo. Such option may only need to be used once for it forever to suffice as a credible threat to anyone who wishes to centrally control bitcoin. See also: https://bitco.in/forum/threads/gold-collapsing-bitcoin-up.16/page-162#post-5545
I'm a shareholder who has watched the business closely since the early beginning, when they first presented their business plans on Let's Talk Bitcoin radio show. What most articles about Neo's problems fail to mention is the outside factors that lead to this delicate situation. Neo's problems started with the IPO or IPVO as they've called it. Their plan was ambitious, to raise a lot of BTC or three separate security exchanges at the same time. BTCT.TO, Havelock and Bitfunder. Out of all these three exchanges, only Havelock is operational at the moment. BTCT.TO was first exchange to shut down due to pressure from US authorities http://www.reddit.com/BitcoinStocks/comments/1iyz6p/btct_exchange_may_close_to_us_customers/ which was followed the next month by Bitfunder shutdown that was also accompanied by a mysterious fund freeze or some other issue that made access to funds impossible for customers and that included Neo & Bee funds raised in the Bitfunder IPO. A hefty chunk of IPO funds were raised on Bitfunder. Danny said in his last statement he covered those lost funds out of his own pocket. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=289730.msg6030319#msg6030319 Both BTCT.TO and Bitfunder were operated by US citizens from within the US. Danny tried to recover the Bitfunder IPVO funds, he even brought Bitfunder owner to Cyprus in an attempt to find a recovery solution https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=348468.0 Neo's March opening also coincided with the collapse of Mt.Gox, where Danny personally lost BTC which he wanted to use to inject into the company prior to completing an equity sale. Needless to mention price of BTC didn't help with sustaining ongoing EURO fiat expenses like wages and such. What also happened in March, and this part is very important, was a forum assault from the competition MPEx exchange (an exchange mentioned in a recent article regarding Satoshi Dice investigation) who started spreading a lot of disinformation https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516460.msg5708705#msg5708705 Neo & Bee was targeted by MPEx because they are the main, highest volume listing on Havelock (an exchange they've also targeted a lot using same tools). Neo & Bee also had plans for a regulated security exchange which would have posed bigger threat for MPEx. In addition MPEx was the only BTC security exchange Neo & Bee ignored when they've decided to do the IPO, something which also didn't sit well with MPEx owner. Most of the things MPEx claimed were flat out lies and disinformation, which is something they've constantly done for the past few months using a multitude of accounts to make such campaign more credible. One of Danny's latest posts on the Bitcointalk forum is a reply to such filthy unfounded defamaition https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516460.msg5709849#msg5709849 MPEx is also the person Danny referred to in his last statement: "My recent silence has been forced due to the actions of two people, one of which has been posting on here thinking they know me and have the inside knowledge about my life which is largely false and they really should obtain some better sources, however those posts had much wider ramifications than they probably assumed they would have, so I hold them partially responsible for what has occurred since their posts" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=289730.msg6030319#msg6030319 MPEx even went as far as to claim Danny was claiming the identity of a dead kid https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516460.msg5710145#msg5710145 He was also using multiple accounts to spread disinformation on forum. MPEx main Bitcointalk account was permanently banned following these intense defamation campaign https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=551603.msg6010465#msg6010465 and this is something Bitcointalk libertarian mods rarely do. It came on the heels of a very malicious and targeted defamation campaign using a multitude of accounts. By spreading all these false rumors MPEx did manage to amplify Neo's liquidity issue by making finding a buyer much harder and make both shareholders and employees edgy and ultimately lead to those threats Danny received, which I personally think were very real. There were some articles in the Cypriot press claiming that Danny didn't register complaints with Cypriot police regarding those threats but Danny only claimed he was advised to interrupt contact with all parties involved by "revelant authorities", including the employees who might have been involved in making those threats. He never mentioned going to the Cypriot police for advice. According to what other people said Danny doesn't speak Greek and he most likely contacted either UK police or the UK embassy. According to Danny's words, he planned on returning to Cyprus before those threats were made. In the meantime, back in Cyprus 2-3 individuals that paid Danny 30-40k Euros to buy BTC, a deal which he didn't get to close following the events described above, made official complaints against Danny. (it's possible these very same people made those threats and it's also possible they are ex employees) This lead to an official police registered complaint, apparently turning Danny into person of interest in police investigation and the piece of news that came out in Cyprus Mail which you've also turned into an article recently. It's true that employees were kept in the dark about the liquidity issue Neo faced. This doesn't make Brewster corrupt or crooked. It made sense from his point of view not to cause a panic if alternative funding could have been found. Unfortunately many of the employees gave in to the panic successfully started on forums. If I were to draw a conclusion to this whole unfortunate situation, I'd say the regulators were the ones to mess things up by interfering. Hadn't the regulators closed Bitfunder, Neo & Bee would have still been in business and fully operational today. The liquidity issue wouldn't have brought them down.
Bitcoin Options Index (^OIX) price sentiment indicator hits all time high ($42.66 / BTC)
The recent purchase of ~36,000 call options has driven the OIX to an all-time high, a very bullish signal for the medium-term bitcoin price. This indicator is based on the average break-even value for bitcoin options purchased in the past week. Over 60,000BTC in market-based bets is currently at risk in the option contracts purchased in the past week, so it's an indicator based on over $2,000,000 in real money bets on the future price of bitcoin. You can read more about how the OIX is calculated here. Which also includes this nifty historical chart of OIX vs. BTC price.
Havelock Investments - Ticker data, balance and portfolio data
Bitcoin address balances from blockchain.info Portfolio data and average trading price from BTCT.co Average trading price from MPEx Havelock MtGox weighted average, any currency Can easily be further customized. Simply add the code in the script editor on a Google spreadsheet. A must have for fund managers. Make sure you only have read-access only API keys for your account. No trading/withdrawals/actions permission on the key. Unless you trust Google's staff and people you share the spreadsheet with (Protip: don't).
Why don't call/put options on MPEx.co update very frequently?
Hey, I'm new to MPEx trading, and I have experience trading stock options, so I thought what the hell and made an account on CoinBr.com (an mpex broker). I bought a few 37 calls to expire the last Friday of this month, and in 2 days of watching it, I haven't seen the bid/ask price move hardly at all. In that time frame, Bitcoin has gone up about 70 cents from where I bought it, which isn't huge, but in percentage terms that's pretty good. So why hasn't that option price gone up? Is it just a lack of liquidity on the market? If a stock were to move the equivalent percentage that BTC has in the past few days, the option would go way up. What am I missing here?
Does anything like this exist? Very standard dollar FX futures, but traded and settled in Bitcoins. i.e. You post BTC in a margin account to either buy or sell a contract at a market price. On delivery day, if you're long, you post the full notional of the contract in BTC. In return, you receive in BTC the value of the underlying dollars ($Contract Value / exchange rate on delivery day, denominated in BTC) . If you're short, you provide the value of the underlying dollars in BTC and receive the purchase price. You can obviously flatten before the delivery date; that's what margin's for. The only reason I suggest making the settlement all in BTC is to avoid the regulatory overhead of transferring dollars -- it may be worth it to get together with BitPay/Coinbase and let them handle all that. In that case, it becomes even more like a standard FX future -- longs deliver BTC, shorts deliver dollars. I know of operations like mpex and icbit, but they leave a lot to be desired for a lot of reasons. Any thoughts? edit: clarified underlying delivery edit2: the point of this is to indirectly trade Bitcoin futures (which BTC denominated dollar contracts are the inversion of) without shuffling around enough dollars to get CFTC on our backs
How can we build trustworthy trading of options/futures in BTC?
Much currency trading in the world today takes place in the form of options or futures (eg, "You promise to pay me $1363 for €1000 on June 1st"). This allows people to hedge their positions, stabilize prices, and mitigate risk. So far I haven't found any viable market for options in Bitcoins. MPEx is patently untrustworthy. Bitfinex offers margin trading, which isn't quite the same thing. Modern stock markets handle this through a clearinghouse, but in the first days of the NYSE, people would simply meet at a coffee shop and write individual contracts with one another. Perhaps this could work on the internet, but it opens questions: how do you write an enforceable contract? What collateral guarantees payment? How do I know you won't just disappear and not pay up when the time comes? So, how can we bootstrap a system today where cautious people can trust each other enough to trade large contracts? Where the deals can be enforced by law, rather than just a handshake and reputation? This would help the adoption of bitcoin by merchants, as they could hedge against large movements in exchange and set more stable prices.
About a year ago, I opened accounts with BTCT.co, a company that made exchanging securities for Bitcoins a possibility. However, this was impractical - Bitcoin was extremely volatile, and the price of the security often reflected the price of Bitcoin itself. However, now with Bitcoins relative stability, investment would be viable. Unfortunately, all the old exchanges I knew about are now shut down or inactive. BTCT, Havelock Investments, MPEx, and BitFund. Are there any new security exchanging platforms? Has this died down?
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