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A brief history of the 2013 market peak; why some alts really do die; and what would've happened if you'd given in to FOMO

This piece is a follow-up to my earlier piece, which looked at what would’ve happened if you’d purchased alt-coins shortly after the bottom of the 2013-2015 bear market. A lot of the constructive criticism that I received was that I was too bullish on alt-coins, and that the timing was too convenient. Although it’s fair to say that I am bullish on crypto in general and alt-coins in particular (with several major caveats for both), I agree that it’s important to not just focus on historical analyses where it’s fairly clear that you could have earned money. So, today’s research question is whether you’d still be underwater if you’d bought in to the market at or near the 2013 all-time high. All information cited herein comes from the historical charts available at CoinMarketCap.
TL;DR: This worst-case scenario analysis shows that $300 invested equally across 15 of the 40 coins in existence near the market’s peak in 2013 would be worth only $429.95 today—gains which are entirely attributable to Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple. This is basic, but it can be dangerous to buy high. This is especially true of alt-coins, but even the top three coins in our sample saw fairly lackluster results when bought at the top of the market. Finally, nothing in this post should be taken as investment advice. This is only intended as historical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
A Brief History of the 2013 Market Peak
According to CoinMarketCap, the 2013 bull market peaked on December 4, 2013, at ~$15.87 billion in market capitalization.* Thereafter, the market crashed dramatically not once, but twice. In the first crash, which occurred between December 5-8, 2013, overall market cap fell by ~39% to ~$9.66 billion. Then, after a brief recovery to ~$13.57 billion on December 10th, the market fell precipitously, to ~$5.7 billion on December 18, 2013. Thus, over the course of only two weeks, from December 4-18, 2013, the market lost ~64% of its value. Although this was by no means the end of the 2013-2015 bear market--which lasted for approximately 17 months and saw an additional decline of ~45% from the December 18, 2013 low--this was the end of the beginning.
What If I Bought Crypto Right as the 2013 Market Peaked?
Generally, the first rule of trading is** that you want to buy low and sell high. As a result of their fear of missing out (“FOMO”), however, many people find themselves accidentally buying high. Today, I’m going to look at what would have happened to someone who bought their crypto right as the market was peaking. Ideally, I would run this experiment from December 4, 2013, but due to the limited data available from CoinMarketCap, I’m forced to choose between November 24th, December 1st, December 8th, and December 15th. Of those dates, I have selected December 1, 2013, because it represents the worst possible scenario for which I have data. On that date, total crypto market cap, which had hit a new high of ~$15.4 billion the day before, swung wildly between a high of ~$14.83 billion and a low of ~$12.18 billion. Unfortunately, it’s unclear exactly when CoinMarketCap’s snapshot was taken. That said, it’s clear that our hypothetical FOMO trader is about to lose his shirt over the next few weeks, so let’s dive into the specifics.
On December 1, 2013, there were 40 coins listed on CoinMarketCap. I won’t list them all here, but of those 40, all but 11 are still listed as active on CoinMarketCap. The truly dead (or “inactive”) coins are BBQCoin (BQC; rank 16), Devcoin (DVC; rank 19), Tickets (TIX; rank 22), Copperlark (CLR; rank 24), StableCoin (SBC; rank 25), Luckycoin (LKY—ironic, I realize; rank 31), Franko (FRK; rank 34), Bytecoin (BTE; rank 35), Junkcoin (JKE—how apt; rank 36), CraftCoin (CRC; rank 39), and Colossuscoin (COL; rank 40).***
Now, since this post is already incredibly long, instead of testing all 40 coins, let’s take a decently-sized sample of five coins each from the top, middle, and bottom of the stack, and look at what happens. For the middle, although the temptation is to take decent alts, let’s fight that and take the group with the highest failure rate: ranks 21-25. So, here’s out pool:
Now, here are how our sample of coins has performed as of when I write this:****
So, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our top-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth $411.80 (the profitable coins) + $3.06 (PPC) + $4.27 (NMC) = $419.13—a 4.19x increase.
Now for the two coins in the middle five that didn’t completely die:
So, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our middle-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth ~$15.19—an ~84.8% loss.
Finally, here are the two coins from the bottom five that didn’t completely die:
So, excluding everything buy Argentum, if our hypothetical FOMO trader had invested $100 in our bottom-five sample near the 2013 peak, it would currently be worth ~$2.96—a ~97% loss. Putting it all together, $300 invested in this sample of 15 coins as close to the peak of the 2013 market as the data will let me get, would be worth $429.95—a disappointing, but not-unexpected ~30.2% increase over five years. That said, I’m honestly somewhat amazed our FOMO trader made anything at all on this basket of coins, considering how many of them failed. In any case, all of his gains came from the top-three coins from 2013: Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple.
Conclusions
What’s the lesson here, what’s the takeaway?***** Most importantly, I think the above analysis shows that it can be very dangerous to buy alt-coins when the market is at or near an all-time high—a conclusion that appears to be true regardless of where the alt is positioned in the market. That said, there are a few caveats: (1) this sample was intentionally bad, in order to reflect a worst-case scenario; (2) even buying the top-three coins at the all-time high didn’t net our FOMO trader particularly large gains when compared to someone who bought these same coins after the crash. Therefore, I think that the most important lesson here is not to buy high in the first place. Investing solely because of FOMO will probably cause you to lose money, unless you have invested equally in a broad range of cryptocurrencies, like the trader in our hypothetical. Even then, however, our FOMO trader probably would have done better investing in an S&P Index fund over the same period.
Endnotes
*This is a correction to my earlier piece, in which I stated that the cryptocurrency market peaked on November 30, 2013, at a total market capitalization of ~$15.2 billion. I made this error due to having failed to narrow the date range of the chart so I could properly zoon in. That said, the exact details of the market peak don’t affect the conclusions from my last piece, which considered trades made after the market had bottomed out.
** …you do not talk about trading. Wait, that’s the wrong rulebook.
*** Since I already typed it out, here’s the list of remaining active coins, in descending order: Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), Peercoin (PPC), Namecoin (NMC), Megacoin (MEC), Feathercoin (FTC), WorldCoin (WDC), Primecoin (XPM), Freicoin (FRC), Novacoin (NVC), Zetacoin (ZET), Infinitecoin (IFC), Terracoin (TRC), Crypto Bullion (CBX), Anoncoin (ANC), Digitalcoin (DGC), GoldCoin (GLD), Yacoin (YAC), Ixcoin (IXC), Fastcoin (FST), BitBar (BTB), Mincoin (MNC), Tagcoin (TAG), FlorinCoin (FLO), I0Coin (I0C), Phoenixcoin (PXC), Argentum (ARG), Elacoin (ELC)
**** I know that we could have sold them sooner, and probably for more money, but let’s just assume that our hypothetical FOMO trader was a founding member of the #hodlgang. ;-)
***** Don’t mess with Maui when he’s on a breakaway! You’re welcome. ;-)
Disclosures: I have previous held Litecoin, and currently hold approximately $140 of Ripple. I do not believe this influenced my analysis in any way. I have never bought or held any of the other coins discussed in this analysis.
Edits: Formatting, typos, minor clarifications.
submitted by ThaneduFife to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Ethereum is so powerful, someone made a fully Proof of Work mined cryptocurrency inside it - to the moon!

To all the Ethereum haters and to everyone spinning up their own blockchains, to those who think all of the new tokens are just scam ICOs, you are wrong. Ethereum is better than that. Now there are also pure Proof Of Work mined cryptocurrencies within ethereum (as tokens) - you don't need a separate blockchain to launch trustless cryptocurrencies anymore you can just use the one world blockchain - Ethereum.
As of 2018 there are four Token Mining Pools running and many open source Token Mining clients. This is pretty big for Ethereum and scary for smaller mined cryptocurrencies. We can rebuild any Cryptocurrency inside of ethereum now. Bitcoin, litecoin, feathercoin, namecoin, peercoin, anything. Buckle up.
Look at how ridiculous this is: http://tokenminingpool.com
submitted by infernal_toast to ethtrader [link] [comments]

1st BTC/Altcoin Mining Guide, Feedback Welcome!

When I decided to write this guide, I was throwing cryptocurrencies around like they were nothing. I was foolish in the fact that I disregarded the exchange fees that are attached with the services that those exchanges provided. I'm in by no means a cryptocurrency genius, and I'm still not extremely seasoned at it, but I've learned enough about cryptocurrencies in the past month that I feel confident to pass on the knowledge I have learned and to help those who are overwhelmed on where to start.
So what exactly is a cryptocurrency? According to technopedia (n.d.) a Cryptocurrency is a type of digital currency that is based on cryptography. Cryptocurrency uses cryptography for security, making it difficult to counterfeit. Public and private keys are often used to transfer the currency from one person to another.
When mining cryptocurrencies, one important concept needs to be established, and that's hash rate. Hash rate is simply a unit of measurement of processing power. The more your hash rate is, the more profitable mining becomes.
This guide uses specific sites and software, chosen by myself, as a great springboard into the cryptocurrency world. These sites and software are extremely flexible, easy to use, and integrate very well together. The mining pools I've chosen are multiple currency pools, designed to consolidate a major of the cryptocurrencies together, and instead of using several mining pools, you use three.
These are the things you'll need to get started: MultiMiner
Accounts at Coinotron, The Mining Pool Co., and BitMinter
Accounts at Cryptsy and Coinbase
There are a few different ways to mine for cryptocurrencies, the common of which are using your Central Processing Unit (CPU), Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), and Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) devices. CPU based mining is not profitable any longer, and will cost you money in the end by increasing electricity costs. GPU based mining is still popular, but losing steam against ASIC based mining. If you choose to use your GPU for mining, AMD/ATI based graphics cards (especially the Radeon HD 79xx series of cards), are the most efficient. If you have an nVidia based graphics card, I'm sorry. You can still mine on nVidia cards, but your hash rates are going to be much slower when compared to their AMD/ATI counterparts. If you chose to use GPU mining, Black Friday or Cyber Monday are you best bets for upgrading your equipment. ASIC based mining is quickly losing value with the changing difficulty on all networks, but it's the most cost effective way to increase your hash rate, and see a positive return on any equipment purchases. If my math is correct, using the methods in this guide, in order for any ASIC device to yield a positive cash flow, you've got to get a device that has at least a 5Gh/s rate (such as the Butterfly Labs Jalapeno).
Now for the fun part, explaining how everything in this well greased machine is going to work. Patience plays a big part in the cryptocurrency world, and when I first started, I had none. I was so eager to see the amount of Bitcoin go up, regardless of how much I was getting penalized in fees from trading. So, that's the first step on your journey. PATIENCE. I CANNOT emphasize this enough. Sometimes, you've just got to hurry up and wait, the effects of waiting things out on the cryptocurrency market WILL PAY OFF.
Step one of this machine is signing up for all three pools (BitMinter, Coinotron, and Mining Pool Co.). This is so that you can actually get server addresses to plug into MultiMiner, after signing up for these services though, you've still got a ways to go.
Step two is sign up for Cryptsy. I chose Cryptsy because of the features they're going to offer at a later time, as well as support for 60 cryptocurrencies (which covers all but one of which we can mine). When your Cryptsy account is setup, you will need to go into the Balances portion of Cryptsy, and find all of the currencies in which you will be mining from the pools. Once Balances are loaded up, you will need to click on the Actions button next to the currency, and click Deposit / Autosell, and then Generate Address. There's a small clipboard near the address it generated, and that will copy the address for pasting in the mining pool websites. You will want to copy, and paste all of them to a text document, along with which currency it belongs to. Not only does this keep you from juggling back and forth trying to figure out things, but it helps for reference and setting up MultiMiner.
Once you have those accounts setup, you'll want to sign up for Coinbase. A WORD OF WARNING FOR THOSE WHO ARE PARANOID... Coinbase will want to link to a bank account, this is mandatory if you want to trade your currencies for cash. If you want to trade currencies, just for the sake of trading, then you can skip Coinbase altogether. You can transfer your Bitcoins from Cryptsy straight into Coinbase, and then sell the Bitcoins from Coinbase, and straight into your designated bank account.
MultiMiner, oh how amazing you are. For every cryptocurrency available in all pools, you will need to add these coins, along with server addresses, log-ins and passwords. To do so, click on the drop down next to the Settings button, and click Coins. From there, click on Add Coin, and choose each coin from a pool. This will list it in the box to the left, and give you the ability to add information on the right. You can add multiple servers as well, in case the current server you're mining on goes down. After all your coins are setup, you'll need to setup your Strategies. Click the drop down next to Settings, and chose Strategies. Check the Enable Strategies check box, choosing Straight Profitability from the drop down, and checking the Strategy every five minutes (that way you're not losing money by mining something that has dropped in price). This aggressive price checking makes it to where you're always on top with whatever you're mining. Also make sure you have Mine the Single Most Profitable Coin selected. Stick with CoinChoose as your price source (under Settings), as CoinWarz charges for there services beyond a certain point. Click Start, and take a vacation.
Reading the charts on Cryptsy can be a little tricky, and scary if you've never saw those types of graphs before. Those graphs are called Candlestick Charts, and are used primarily in the stock market. I won't go in to great detail on this, however, you can find a nice cheat sheet on the subject here.
I hope everyone enjoyed the guide, sorry for being punctual and brief, but there isn't anything too elaborate of complicated about searching for cryptocurrencies. I love mining as a hobby, mining's fun, and if there is any money to be made off of mining from my end, great, if not, I had fun mining.
While compiling a spreadsheet of the minable currencies in this guide, if everything is set up correctly (and assuming servers aren't down), you should be able to mine the following:
And while Mining Pool Co. offers ASICcoin and Unobtainium, ASICcoin isn't supported in MultiMiner, and Unobtanium isn't supported in Cryptsy. I still mine for Unobtanium in hopes that Cryptsy will include it one day.
References
Cryptocurrency. (n.d.). In technopedia. Retrieved from http://www.technopedia.com/
submitted by ford0415 to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]

How to mine Feathercoin FTC on pool CNEX.eu - EUROPE'S LEADING BITCOIN, LITECOIN AND CRYPTO-CURRENCY EXCHANGE How To Convert Bitcoin Litecoin Namecoin Novacoin Terracoin Peercoin Feathercoin Primecoin To USD [Part 2 ]How to make your own bitcoin litecoin dogecoin mining pool stratum server Easiest way to mine Bitcoin, Litecoin, PPCoin, Namecoin, Feathercoin, and Dogecoin

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How to mine Feathercoin FTC on pool

VIETNAMCOIN This is part 2 of the 3 part series of making your own bitcoin mining pool. The commands needed to install the stratum server are: git clone http... Uploaded for www.feathercoin.com to use for their mining page. A video guide for new miners to familiarize them with a mining pool. List of pools: https://ft... How To Convert Bitcoin Litecoin Namecoin Novacoin Terracoin Peercoin Feathercoin Primecoin To USD LuisTutorialTV. Loading... Unsubscribe from LuisTutorialTV? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working ... Use any CPU or GPU for any coin, SHA-256 or Scrypt, any computer, as many computers, and with immediate mining results. https://www.eobot.com/new.aspx?referi... How to mine Feathercoin [FTC] on pool Explained in details how to mine Feathercoin [FTC] coin on pool. Useful Links: Official Website: https://www.feathercoi...

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